And there’s more…

8 Mar

Hanif Abdulmuhit on a Labour leaflet

It seems that I was guilty of a couple of bits of understatement in Friday’s post about former councillor Hanif Abdulmuhit.

First of all, he is not just campaigning for Labour, he is a candidate in Green Street West, the seat he previously held for both Respect and Labour. 

And secondly, his support for the Conservatives went beyond now-deleted social media posts – he joined the party and campaigned for it.

Tory AGM Tweet

This tweet is from September 2023 and Abdulmuhit is there, at the West Ham Conservative’s AGM. He’s on the right, partly hidden by Tim Roll-Pickering’s head.

An arrow pointing at Hanif Abdulmuhit's head

And here he is campaigning for them.

Tory canvas.

Hanif Tory canvassing.

I guess the Labour selection panel’s due diligence on his social media history wasn’t as diligent as it should have been.

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A man for all seasons

6 Mar

Hanif Abdulmuhit campaigning in 2026

Hanif Abdulmuhit out on the Labour campaign trail

While we’re on the subject of people changing parties – not especially unusual in the small world of Newham politics – let’s talk about Hanif Abdulmuhit, who is currently out campaigning for Labour ahead of the upcoming local election. 

Abdulmuhit began his political life as secretary of Newham Liberal Democrats. He then joined George Galloway’s Respect party, winning a council seat in 2006, defeating Labour incumbents in the process, and standing as the party’s London Assembly candidate for City & East in 2008. As Respect collapsed in on itself, he completed the remainder of his term as a Labour councillor, sat out the 2010 elections, and then returned — fully reconstructed — as a Labour member in 2014. He went on to serve as a mayoral advisor for Building Communities and community lead for Green Street in the administration of Sir Robin Wales.

That second Labour stint lasted until 2022, when he was deselected by the NEC panel charged with picking the party’s candidates. There were suggestions that he was the victim of dirty tricks in the run-up to the selection process, and he took it very badly. In social media posts, subsequently deleted, he announced his support for the Conservatives.

Abdulmuhit’s bitterness towards his former party was on open display in July 2023, when he posted gleefully about Labour’s defeat in the Boleyn ward by-election. “Some refreshing news out of Newham at last!” he wrote, celebrating the victory of independent candidate Mehmood Mirza and describing it as “proof people of Newham have had enough of broken promises and lies of Newham Labour.”

The irony — or the problem, depending on how you look at it — is that Mehmood Mirza is now Labour’s principal opponent in the Newham mayoral election. The same man whose victory Abdulmuhit publicly cheered, whom he held up as a symbol of Labour’s failure and the community’s rejection of the party, is today the candidate Labour most needs to defeat. 

The contradictions do not end with his serial party-hopping. Abdulmuhit was also posting views that sit strikingly at odds with Labour’s national platform and Newham Council’s own stated priorities.

When Sadiq Khan shared a video explaining the health effects of toxic air, Abdulmuhit dismissed it as “Propaganda! Absolutely no definitive evidence for this whatsoever!” — a remarkable claim given that the scientific consensus on the harm caused by air pollution is overwhelming. Newham is one of London’s most polluted boroughs; the health consequences for its residents are not an abstraction.

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He also amplified a Toby Young article from the Daily Sceptic — a well-known climate-sceptic outlet — approvingly characterising climate scientists as “fanatics” and “gloom merchants” driven by “wishy washy feelings” rather than science. These are not merely heterodox views within the Labour family. They are positions associated with the right flank of the Conservative Party and its outriders, not with a movement that has made clean energy and environmental action central to its offer to voters.

Newham Council has declared a climate emergency and committed to ambitious net-zero targets. Labour nationally has staked significant political capital on its green agenda. A Labour activist publicly aligning himself with Toby Young on climate science is not a minor quirk — it is a meaningful ideological statement.

Hanif Abdulmuhit spent eight years as a Labour councillor before being deselected. He then publicly celebrated Labour losing a council seat, specifically praising the independent candidate who is now Labour’s main opponent in the mayoral race. He has dismissed the scientific evidence on air pollution as propaganda and shared climate-denying content from a right-wing sceptic outlet. He has also, at various points in the more distant past, been a Liberal Democrat and a Respect councillor.

None of this is secret. It is all a matter of public record — or was, before it was deleted along with the rest of his Twitter/X account.

The question worth asking is not why Abdulmuhit wants back in. Political calculation is a constant in Newham, and the motivations of someone who has navigated this many different party loyalties are presumably pragmatic. The real question is why Labour would want him close to its campaign — and, more pointedly, why it would welcome back someone whose loudest recent contribution to Newham politics was cheering on the very candidate Labour is now trying to beat. And who retweeted this kind of thing:

Voters are entitled to know who is working on behalf of candidates they are asked to support. In a contest where Labour’s credibility and trustworthiness in Newham is itself at issue, the company a campaign keeps matters.

Forhad and Hanif

Having someone whose political journey spans the Lib Dems, Respect, Labour, the Conservatives (however briefly), and back again — and who was publicly delighted by Labour’s embarrassment less than two years ago — seems, at best, an unusual choice.

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Are they related?

4 Mar

Clive Furness (with Laila Cunningham, Nigel Farage and Sir Robin Wales on the far right)

Reform’s mayoral candidate. A man who looks a bit like Clive Furness, but younger, thinner and with much darker hair.

Are they related?

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Journey’s End

4 Mar

Wales Furness Reform.

Robin Wales and Clive Furness with Nigel Farage (picture via London Evening Standard)

Well, it was bound to happen sooner or later. Sir Robin Wales and his long-time ally and fellow Blue Labour acolyte Clive Furness have defected to Reform UK.

Wales will be joining as ‘Director of Local Government Development’ and Furness will be the party’s candidate for Mayor of Newham.

Both men have long promoted a politics well to the right of mainstream Labour opinion and their recent piece in Spiked about why they left the Labour Party was merely a trailer for this announcement.

This blog was largely founded as a way for me to express my disgust and amazement that Wales, a man who so clearly possessed no Labour values whatsoever, was in any kind of leadership position at all, much less the all-powerful and unchallengeable directly elected mayor. And it turns out, in the end, I was absolutely right.

Those currently running what remains of the Labour Party in Newham – hollowed out by five long years of suspension – should have a long hard think about their decision to turn their backs on the last eight years and embrace the politics of the previous 20.

Wales and Furness have gone. Good riddance. Their politics should go with them.

 

Update: Wales’ new title at Reform is Director of Local Government Development, not Director of London Local Government as I previously had it. Apologies.

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The East End ‘Eton’: A Social Mobility Miracle, or a Mirage?

23 Feb

Head teacher Mr Crossman with LAE students

Alex Crossman, head of LAE, with some students (from his Substack)

A recent feature in The Times Magazine (paywall) painted a glowing portrait of the London Academy of Excellence (LAE), a state-funded sixth-form college in Stratford, East London. This year, 62 of its 247 Year 13 students received offers from Oxford or Cambridge — a ratio that rivals the most exclusive private schools in Britain. The school’s head, Alex Crossman, was given generous space to make his case: that LAE proves disadvantaged young people can compete at the very highest level when given the right environment. On the surface, it is a compelling story and one that our local MP has bought into. But it is also one worth examining rather more closely.

More than an exam factory?

Crossman is predictably keen to distance the school from the “academic boot camp” label often attached to the school. He points to extracurricular activities, elective programmes, and a teaching staff of whom more than a third hold PhDs. In a Substack post written in direct response to the Times coverage, he insists the school is not “unashamedly selective” but “unashamedly specialist.” He also highlights an admissions practice that rarely makes the headlines: students eligible for free school meals are prioritised, and around 40 percent of the intake in recent years has been admitted ahead of applicants with better grades but richer parents.

These are genuine points. But they sit alongside a rather more awkward history. Earlier reporting raised concerns that LAE had been removing students mid-course who failed to meet the required academic threshold — effectively managing its results by shedding those least likely to succeed. Critics argued this placed an unfair burden on nearby comprehensive sixth forms, most obviously Newham Sixth Form College (NewVIC), which were left to absorb ex-LAE students on considerably tighter funding. The charge was not that the school was running a boot camp, but something potentially more troubling: that its impressive numbers were partly a product of careful curation. One critic stated “LAE should not be applauded for rigging their success.”

Eddie Playfair, at the time principal of NewVIC, argued that “academic selective system at 16 is now emerging” in London, “and that means you get social sorting happening at the same time, and I think that is probably bad for social mobility.”

The selection question

Crossman’s response to selection critiques is that all A-level provision is selective — every course requires minimum GCSE grades — and that LAE simply selects with social purpose. This is true as far as it goes. But it sidesteps the more pointed question about what happens to the students who don’t make the cut, either at entry or during Year 12. The school’s entry requirement of grade 7 or above in eight GCSEs places it firmly at the top end of the selective spectrum, drawing from a pool of the highest-achieving 16-year-olds in the country. The free school meals priority is a meaningful corrective, but it does not change the fundamental character of the institution: a highly selective school that takes the best-prepared students and gives them an intensive, well-resourced education. That this produces good results is not, in itself, surprising. And neither is the knock-on effect of relatively weaker overall results in neighbouring institutions, who are then criticised for not doing as well.

Where do the students actually come from?

The geographic picture complicates the narrative further. LAE presents itself as rooted in Newham, one of London’s most deprived boroughs, yet the Times piece acknowledges – almost in passing – that many pupils commute in from Essex or from other parts of London. With Stratford now a major hub on the Elizabeth line, the school is easily accessible from a very wide catchment area. Its admissions policy reserves half its places for Newham residents — but that still leaves significant room for students travelling in from considerably more prosperous areas. Research into similar “super-selective” 16-19 free schools has consistently found patterns of recruitment well beyond the notional home borough, drawing ambitious, well-prepared students from a much wider pool than the local community framing suggests.

A model to be replicated — or a cautionary tale?

The Times argues the LAE model should be rolled out nationally. But even setting aside the political obstacles — the current government rightly suspended the Tories’ ‘Free Schools’ programme in late 2024 — the systemic questions would remain unanswered. A school that skims the most academically able students from across a wide urban area, concentrates them in a well-funded specialist institution, and then presents the results as evidence of social mobility may be telling a story that is true for the individuals involved but deeply misleading about the system as a whole.

Indeed, the school’s existence may actually harm social mobility by concentrating the most able students away from their local comprehensive sixth forms. A point supposedly progressive politicians should bear in mind.

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How a new voting system could end Labour’s grip on Newham

2 Feb

Forhad for Mayor.

Uma Kumaran MP on Instagram

For decades, Newham has been synonymous with Labour dominance. The borough has consistently delivered some of the party’s strongest results anywhere in the country. But as we approach the May 2026 mayoral election, a perfect storm of a changed electoral system and political upheaval threatens to end that era.

The System That Protected Labour (though it rarely needed it)

Until now, Newham’s mayoral elections used the Supplementary Vote system, where voters could express both first and second preferences. If no candidate secured over 50%, second choices were redistributed between the top two. In practice, this rarely mattered — Labour won outright on first preferences in five of six elections. Only in 2006, when George Galloway’s Respect Party mounted a strong challenge, did Labour need second preferences to win.

Had the Tories not abolished this system in 2022 it would have provided Labour with a crucial safety net this year. Progressive voters could have backed the Greens or another party as their first choice, knowing they could return to Labour via second preferences. Even with Labour’s support weakened by the unpopularity of the Starmer government, the party would likely have benefited from transfers from other progressive voters keen to keep less appealing alternatives out.

That buffer has for the time being disappeared. Despite introducing legislation to reinstate the supplementary vote, parliament has not yet passed it into law, so the 2026 election will use First Past the Post. One vote, winner takes all, regardless of whether they achieve a majority.

Historical Strength, Meet Historic Weakness

To understand how extraordinary the current situation is, consider the numbers. In 2018, Rokhsana Fiaz won with a commanding 73.4%. Even in 2022, when her support dropped significantly, she still secured 56.2%.

Historically, Newham Labour’s candidates have outperformed national polling by 25-40 percentage points. For example, when the party polled 29% nationally in 2010, their mayoral candidate won 68% locally. Newham has always been a Labour bedrock.

Fast forward to January 2026, and Labour is polling at a catastrophic 17-22% nationally — the party’s worst position since monthly polling began in 1983. Even with the usual level of out-performance versus the national party, Newham Labour may struggle to hit even 40% this time.

And with the early messaging from Labour candidate Forhad Hussain suggesting he is running against the current mayor’s record rather than the Opposition, that is doubtful. “Labour’s made a mess of it, vote Labour” is s hard message to sell.

The Challengers Emerge

Given the polls and the change to the voting system, this election is genuinely competitive.

The Newham Independents’ candidate, Councillor Mehmood Mirza, represents the largest opposition group on the council with four seats (or is it five?). His populist platform — council tax freezes, free parking, public events, even more free parking, and free sports gear for every child — taps into dissatisfaction over street cleaning, parking charges, and council governance, as well as anger over Labour’s stance on Gaza. Whether his ambitious spending promises can be delivered within a balanced budget is questionable, but the appeal is undeniable. Promises cost nothing, and by the time voters find out he can’t actually deliver them, it’s too late.

The Green candidate, Councillor Areeq Chowdhury, defected from Labour in 2024. His candidacy provides a direct bridge for disillusioned Labour supporters into another progressive option. The Greens already hold the Stratford Olympic Park ward and are targeting council seats in Stratford, Forest Gate and the Royal Docks. They came second with 17.4% in the July 2024 general election in Stratford & Bow, demonstrating organised support across the borough’s younger and more affluent areas. His promise to “ensure we have a clean, green place to live in” will resonate with those voters.

The central structural problem for Labour is that they and their main challengers sit broadly within overlapping political spaces. They share concerns about housing quality, street cleaning, regeneration, and accountability. Despite his regressive policies on climate and tax, Mirza enjoys the endorsement of Jeremy Corbyn, while the Greens have also attracted support on the Left with positive messaging on migration and calls for a wealth tax.

If Chowdhury attracts environmentally-minded and younger voters, while Mirza consolidates anti-establishment and community-based support, Labour’s vote could be eroded from two directions at once.

Reform UK adds another layer of complexity. Newham is not an obvious Reform stronghold. It is younger, more ethnically diverse, and more urban than the areas where Reform has typically done best. Its core base — older, white, socially conservative voters — is relatively smaller here. But the party’s emphasis on social conservatism and cultural issues may resonate with some older and more religious voters who feel detached from Labour’s current direction. Without much in the way of local campaigning infrastructure they secured around 17% in the recent Plaistow South by-election. Reform doesn’t need to win to make a difference because it draws votes from multiple pools: disaffected Labour supporters, residual Conservatives, and general protest voters. Ten or twelve percent could reshape the contest by lowering the threshold for victory.

The Fragmentation Factor

Put these elements together, and the outcome is unprecedented fragmentation and a potentially knife-edge result. Something along these lines is entirely plausible:

  • Labour: 32-40%
  • Newham Independents: 25-33%
  • Greens: 18-25%
  • Reform: 10-15%
  • Others: 5-10%

Labour might win with barely a third of the vote, meaning a large majority preferred someone else. Alternatively, if one challenger consolidates better or is more effective at turning out its vote, the party could lose out entirely.

The Irony of Simplification

Historically, Newham’s mayoral elections were about majorities – often big majorities. In 2026, they’ll be about pluralities. Labour’s dominance was built on strong first-preference support, reinforced by second preferences when needed. Under FPTP, only the first layer remains. Its proponents claim it’s a simpler system, easier to understand. Ironically, it could lead to a result that is more complicated and unpredictable.

For Labour, the task is clear but difficult: hold the vote together in an unfavourable national climate and prevent further defections. Their current strategy, focusing on parking and traffic management, is seriously puzzling. Why add salience to issues that Mirza is actively campaigning on and at the same time risk alienating younger and environmentally conscious voters, for whom the Greens are already an attractive option? 

For the challengers, the dilemma is opposite. Each has a case against Labour, but collectively they risk canceling each other out. Fragmentation may hand Labour victory by default.

Whatever happens, 2026 will produce a mayor backed by fewer people than any of their predecessors. In a borough long accustomed to clear mandates, that would mark a profound shift in how local power is won — and how legitimate it feels. Labour may be about to learn a harsh lesson about the vagaries of first-past-the-post in an age of political volatility.

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Even Nur Confusion

22 Jan

Mere days after posting on Facebook about being a ‘neutral independent council candidate’ Nur Begum (Little Ilford) has done another about-turn, claiming to still be a Labour councillor.

But fellow (and genuinely Labour) councillor Alan Griffiths was quick to correct her. ‘No’ being the entirety of his reply.

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Newham Living Streets

21 Jan
Join us for the launch of Newham Living Streets!
We’re excited to invite residents, local organisations and everyone who cares about safer, greener, more welcoming streets to the official launch of Newham Living Streets! Come along to learn about this exciting new initiative aimed at making walking, wheeling and everyday life in our neighbourhoods healthier and more enjoyable.
📆 Date: Thursday 29 January 2026
🕡 Time: 6:30 PM – 8:30 PM
🏢 Location: Canning Town Library, Rathbone Market, London E16 1EH
Book via the link below:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/launch-of-newham-living-streets-tickets-1977041220511
Hear from inspiring speakers working in transport, public health and community action, discover how you can get involved, and meet others shaping the future of our streets together.
Let’s make Newham’s streets safer, greener and better for everyone — see you there!
#NewhamLivingStreets #LondonCommunity #ActiveTravel #HealthyStreets
 

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Even more independent

12 Jan

Nur Begum election leaflet

Leaflet posted to Facebook by Little Ilford councillor Nur Begum

Little Ilford councillor Nur Begum only crossed the floor to the Newham Independents in November, but it looks like she’s already moving on.

In a post on her Facebook page she describes herself as a ‘Solo Independent Neutral Councillor Candidate’.

Her ‘six point plan’ to Make Newham Great Again (seriously, councillor?) is a combination of Newham Independent gripes – parking charges (twice!), freezing council tax, free bulky waste collection – and actual Labour achievements like free school meals.

She says

Labour has presided over years of decline in our borough

while failing to mention that she sat for the better part of four years as a Labour councillor. 

She goes on

Unlike the big parties, I have only one priority: You. I will work tirelessly every single day to deliver the improvements that the Little Ilford deserves

Her defection to NIPs came after she failed to win re-election as a Labour candidate. Obviously I have no insight into why she was let go, but one might reasonably speculate that a failure to work tirelessly for her residents was a factor. 

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Candidates assemble!

7 Jan

The three biggest parties in Newham politics have announced their candidates to replace Rokhsana Fiaz as mayor in May’s local elections.

Forhad Hussain and fellow Labour candidates

Labour’s candidate will be Forhad Hussain. He, like all of the party’s candidates, he was selected by a special panel of the National Executive Committee. Hussain previously served as councillor for Plaistow North from 2010 to 2018 after standing unsuccessfully on the Respect ticket in 2006. He held a couple of positions in Robin Wales’ cabinet and chaired the audit committee. I’m not sure what he’s been doing politically for the past eight years, though as the local Labour parties have been suspended for five of them it’s perhaps not surprising his profile has been a bit low.

Newham Independents announce Mirza for Mayor

To absolutely no-one’s surprise the Newham Independents will be nominating Cllr Mehmood Mirza as their candidate. I’m afraid I couldn’t get a better picture as both Mirza and his party have blocked me from all their socials. Mirza has been councillor for Boleyn ward since winning a by-election a couple of years ago. He now leads a group of five councillors with, shall we say, diverse political histories (from Corbynites to Conservatives) but united by a sense of grievance with the Labour party and a penchant for owning multiple properties. Mirza was once a candidate for a seat on the party’s NEC and was vice-chair for membership of the West Ham constituency party before being suspended. 

Areeq Chowdhury, Green candidate for Mayor

Newham’s Green party was the official opposition on the council before Mirza’s party turned up. Their two councillors elected in Olympic Park ward were later joined by Areeq Chowdhury after he defected from Labour. Cllr Chowdhury has represented Canning Town North since 2022, where he was a late addition to the slate after a previously selected candidate was dropped.

UPDATE 4 February 2026

Terri Bloore, Conservative candidate for mayor of Newham

According to Who Can I Vote For?, the Conservatives have nominated Terri Bloore as their candidate for mayor.  A quick Google search tells me that Ms Bloore grew up in a rural Leicestershire before studying Public Relations at Bournemouth University and International Affairs at Kings College London. She now works in Corporate & Financial Services and has a particular interest in global sustainability and social impact. There is no announcement on either the East Ham or West Ham & Beckton Conservative Association websites, but a campaign Twitter account has been set up; it has not posted yet.

There is no word yet from the Liberal Democrats or Reform, but all are sure to put their hat in the ring. Maybe the Christian Peoples Alliance will have another go too. This post will be further updated as and when.

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